SUMMARY
The section includes which party the participants would prefer to vote for if there were an election today, who they want to govern Turkey, a possible presidential election scenario between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu, and an analysis and evaluation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's report card grade:
- Which party would you vote for if there were an election today? (direct preference and swing voters distributed)
- Who should govern Turkey?
- If the presidential elections were held this Sunday and ONLY these two people were candidates, which one would you vote for? (Ekrem İmamoğlu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)
- If you were giving a scorecard grade, how would you grade Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in terms of the way he fulfills his duties as President in general?
Political preferences prior to Ekrem İmamoğlu's arrest show that he was charting an upward course, strengthening his position against Erdoğan, and beginning to consolidate the CHP base. While the AK Party vote remains stagnant, the CHP vote is trending upward; this pattern is also observable in the support rates for Erdoğan and İmamoğlu as potential presidential candidates. Furthermore, when compared to the May 2023 general elections, the increase in CHP votes and the decline in IYI Party votes are noteworthy.
In presidential preferences, leaders continue to consolidate support within their own bases. In a scenario where all potential candidates compete, İmamoğlu has surpassed Yavaş to become the most preferred opposition leader; additionally, CHP voters support İmamoğlu the most. MHP voters, meanwhile, have turned their preferences back to Bahçeli. In a scenario where the two most supported candidates compete, as religiosity and income levels rise, preferences shift toward Erdoğan, whereas as they fall, the likelihood of choosing İmamoğlu increases. In the position where these two variables are at their lowest, the likelihood of respondents saying 'I would choose neither' is higher.
Erdoğan's approval rating remains at 2.5 points, consistent with the previous two months. However, a decline is observed in the score given by ruling bloc voters
